在 GRE Critical Reasoning（CR） 題目中，許多考生經常遇到一個挑戰：如何區分 Conclusion（結論）與 Prediction（預測）？ 這種細微的語意差異，往往決定了正確答案的選擇。今天，我們來解析一道關於醫療成本與新型黏合劑的 CR 題目，並說明為什麼 選擇 E 而非 C 是正確的。
題目回顧
Cuts that need to be held closed in order to heal properly have generally been held closed with stitches. However, pressure to reduce medical costs is mounting. Consequently, it is likely that a newly developed adhesive will become the routine method of holding most types of cuts closed. The new adhesive holds most types of cuts closed as well as stitches do, and the cost of applying it is comparable to that of closing cuts with stitches. But whereas stitches must generally be removed by medical personnel after the cut has healed, the adhesive simply wears off. Thus, for any cut that the adhesive can hold closed as well as stitches can, it is more economical to use the adhesive.
In the argument given, the two highlighted portions play which of the following roles?
A. The first is a claim that the argument disputes; the second provides evidence against that disputed claim.
B. The first is a claim that is used as supporting evidence for the main conclusion of the argument; the second is that main conclusion.
C. The first is a claim that is used as supporting evidence for the main conclusion of the argument; the second is a conclusion that is drawn in order to support that main conclusion.
D. The first introduces a practice about which the argument makes a prediction, the second is a conclusion based on that prediction.
E. The first introduces a practice about which the argument makes a prediction; the second is an assessment that is used to support that prediction.
學生的解題過程與困惑
當時，我的解題邏輯是：
第一個劃線部分「Cuts that need to be held closed in order to heal properly have generally been held closed with stitches.」描述了一個既定事實，我認為它應該是 Supporting Evidence（支持證據）。
第二個劃線部分「Thus, for any cut that the adhesive can hold closed as well as stitches can, it is more economical to use the adhesive.」看起來像是一個結論，所以我選擇了 C。
但最終正確答案是 E，我的錯誤點在哪裡？
如何區分 Conclusion 和 Prediction？
老師的解釋：
關鍵誤解在於沒有正確識別出 "Consequently, it is likely that..." 這部分的語意結構。
「It is likely that...」是一個 prediction（預測），而非結論。
「Thus, for any cut that the adhesive can hold closed as well as stitches can, it is more economical to use the adhesive.」是基於該預測的 assessment（評估），而不是次要結論。
換句話說：
第一個劃線部分（stitches 的傳統做法） → 提出一種現狀（practice）。
第二個劃線部分（Thus... more economical） → 是根據預測做出的評估，而不是次要結論。
所以，答案應該是 E（The first introduces a practice about which the argument makes a prediction; the second is an assessment that is used to support that prediction.）。
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